Let our tipster Jones Knows take you into the Premier League weekend as he provides his insight, predictions and betting angles. He wants to back Man Utd at Man City.
How many winners for Jones Knows last weekend?
- Southampton to win 2-0
- Kyle Walker-Peters to have one (4/6), two (3/1) and three (11/1) shots
- Manchester United to draw with Watford 19/4
- Crystal Palace 1-1 Burnley
- Ben Mee to have a shot vs Palace 4/5
- Liverpool vs Chelsea to go to extra-time 12/5
- Liverpool to win the corner count vs Chelsea 4/5
- Joe Willock to score anytime 5/1
- Joe Willock to have a shot on target 11/10
Leicester vs Leeds, Saturday 12.30
Leeds United’s chances of competing in this football match rest largely on which stage of grief they find themselves in after Marcelo Bielsa’s departure. The five stages are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. The quicker the club can get to the final stage, the better.
Jesse Marsch has the tricky task of filling Bielsa’s boots and although he’s promised a similar style to the former boss, we await evidence on that promise before making a judgement on how to approach Leeds from a prediction-betting perspective. “The balance is important but you have to have some patience, you have to be willing to take a beating sometimes,” Marsch told my colleague Adam Bate in an interview in 2020 when talking about his approach to management. Read into that what you will about the potential for him to make an immediate impact.
Meanwhile, Leicester’s attack is purring, and I’m keen on giving them plenty of my backing in the second half of the season, including in this encounter. The Foxes have scored 45 goals in their last 20 games – over two goals per 90 minutes – across all competitions and that has included fixtures against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea. I think they’ll hit that average here in a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Leicester to win and over 2.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Aston Villa vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It’s easy to see why the 2/1 with Sky Bet for an away win could tempt a few in. Swashbuckling Southampton are moving and shaking under Ralph Hasenhuttl.
They are unbeaten in their last seven games in all competitions, winning five. And, four of those fixtures have come against teams in the top seven. If you conjured up a Premier League table since Boxing Day, Saints would be fourth with only Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool above them.
Southampton also have an excellent recent record against Villa, winning five of the last six meetings. But I can’t back them.
At Brighton, Villa got back to what they were good at in the early days of Steven Gerrard’s reign. They were organised, they defended their box with great authority and competed very aggressively in midfield. In other words, they were hard to beat, so I’ll play the draw.
Villa shifted their shape slightly to play much narrower in the win at Brighton. That restricted their ability to win corners as Brighton smashed them up in the corner race 7-2. In fact, since Gerrard took charge and decided to play without much width, Villa have lost the corner race in 10 of their 14 encounters.
Here, they face a corner winning machine in Southampton, who we have profited from on multiple occasions this season. Only Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea have won more corners than Saints (155) this season and Hasenhuttl’s men have won the corner race in 13 of their last 18 Premier League games. The Evens for them to win it again makes plenty of appeal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Southampton to win more corners than Villa (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Burnley vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There shouldn’t be too many issues for Chelsea in this one, despite the obvious distractions off the field. Footballers rarely get too involved with issues in the boardroom, so the chances of the Roman Abramovich situation affecting the focus of the Chelsea players is slim.
What is a relevant factor to this game that can be measured is the likelihood that Ben Mee misses out for Burnley due to an injury picked up against Leicester. Without their organiser and defensive lynchpin they have failed to win in their last 12 fixtures, losing eight of those and that’s including shipping two goals with Mee off the pitch in midweek in that defeat to the Foxes.
Chelsea look back to somewhere near their best under Thomas Tuchel, winning seven of their last eight games in all competitions. Remember, this was a team in the early part of the season that won eight of their first 12 Premier League matches without conceding. And one that still has the joint-best away defence in the Premier League, along with Manchester City. A Chelsea win to nil at an odds-against price of 6/5 with Sky Bet looks juicy.
Chelsea defenders are likely to be on top in the match and without Mee, the chances of those Chelsea defenders scoring from a set-piece are worth a look. In five of those 12 games where Mee has been missing, Burnley have conceded from a corner, including in a 3-0 defeat to Chelsea last season where Kurt Zouma scored, pointing towards a lack of organisation without their skipper.
Antonio Rudiger is Chelsea’s biggest threat from such situations, scoring three goals this season and averaging 1.12 shots per 90 minutes. The 12/1 with Sky Bet for him to score a header will do just nicely.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Chelsea to win to nil (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Antonio Rudiger to score a header (14/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Newcastle vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton’s attack looks very rusty at the moment as similar problems to last season in forward areas are restricting their progress. They haven’t scored in their last three fixtures – a worrying trend backed up by their expected goals data which is averaging out at 0.6 per match over the last three 90 minutes. Newcastle will fancy their chances here.
I’ve headed to the cards market here for a potential angle in what looks likely to be a close, low scoring game settled by fine margins. Since the start of November, no team has drawn more yellow cards from their opponents than Brighton. They have seen 38 yellow cards awarded to opposition players as the likes of Tariq Lamptey and Marc Cucurella play with such pace and trickery.
Initially I was digging for value in the overall booking points for both teams but with the extra lenient Martin Atkinson in charge, who has shown just five cards in his last four Premier League games, that dampened my enthusiasm.
So instead I’ve landed on the prospect of Newcastle being shown more cards than Brighton at 13/8 with Sky Bet to cover myself if the card count is low. It’s a bet that has landed for the opposition in seven of Brighton’s last eight Premier League matches.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to be shown more cards (13/8 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Norwich vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There are two angles that make significant appeal in this monstrous relegation fixture. A lack of goals and lots of shots for Norwich.
If you collate all such ‘six-pointer’ Premier League fixtures to be played after January 1 in the last five years, the average goals per game average is 2.15, way below the normal average for a Premier League game which stands at 2.9 goals this season. Also, five of the six games between two relegation-threatened teams after November 29 this season have seen the game produce less than 2.5 goals. The only game that went over that line was Norwich’s 3-0 win over Watford – a game where they created an expected goals figure of just 0.97.
These types of games can be relied upon to produce plenty of attacking intent, though, with so much jeopardy and desperation for a result in play. The six ‘six-pointer’ clashes this season have seen an average of 27.3 shots per 90 minutes. My view is that Norwich come into this clash with greater confidence in the final third than Brentford, whose defensive style away from home does see the opposition rack up the shots. In their last 10 away games, they have averaged a shots-faced figure of 17.3 per 90 minutes. Newcastle managed 23, Burnley registered 15.
I think Norwich can hit their 13 or more shots line that is being priced up at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Norwich to have 13 or more shots (5/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Wolves vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
A slow burner is predicted.
Wolves have conceded just two goals in the first half of their last 18 Premier League games while Crystal Palace have failed to score in the first half of 10 of their 13 away games this season. I have no strong view on the match outcome but surely this game will be uneventful for the opening 45 minutes. The 11/8 with Sky Bet for a 0-0 at half-time looks a nice bet for the brave souls that can stomach that kind of a play. Cue a 3-3 thriller, then.
An opposition centre back has managed a shot on goal against Palace in six of their last seven fixtures with two goals conceded from corners in that period taking their overall tally to 10 goals conceded from corners this season – only Leicester have shipped more. Wolves are a big threat from set-pieces but siding with which of their centre-backs to back in the shots market is always a tricky conundrum. Max Kilman gets the nod at a juicy 11/8 with Sky Bet for this one. He’s managed a shot on goal every two games this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Max Kilman to have one or more shots at goal (11/8 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Liverpool vs West Ham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
David Moyes has never won a Premier League game as a manager at Anfield in 16 attempts while West Ham have won just one of their last 51 visits to the famous old ground. Statistics like that rarely get too embedded in my thinking for when assessing a match but that wretched record hardly helps matters for a West Ham side that are facing one of the great Liverpool teams of any era.
Jurgen Klopp’s men have won their last 11 games in all competitions, scoring 27 goals, including the last six in the Premier League. It’s a relentless charge.
Liverpool are 2/7 with Sky Bet to put more pressure on Manchester City with a victory. That is too short for my liking, so, I’ve gone hunting to boost that price for a Liverpool focused bet by backing West Ham not to score at Anfield.
Moyes even said himself after the FA Cup defeat in midweek how frustrated he is with the Hammers’ attacking output at the moment. And backing up so quickly from Wednesday to face a full-throttle Liverpool isn’t the ideal scenario for the overworked Michail Antonio, who remains so crucial to the way West Ham set their attacks.
Here, the West Ham striker faces a defence which is the best at home in English football, conceding just seven goals all season. When you factor in that 14 of Liverpool’s 18 wins this season have come while keeping a clean sheet, it makes backing the 6/5 for Klopp’s men to win to nil much more appealing than taking the short odds for just a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Liverpool to win to nil (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Watford vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Watford should not offer too much for Aaron Ramsdale to be worried about as Arsenal’s record under Mikel Arteta against relegation-threatened teams should instil plenty of confidence in a comfortable win without conceding.
The Gunners beat all the relegated teams away from home without conceding last season to an aggregate score of 8-0 and have already seen off Burnley, Newcastle, Watford and Norwich (twice) while keeping clean sheets this season. The home win to nil at 6/5 with Sky Bet is a confident selection.
Martin Odegaard is becoming a key player for Arteta but has done so without registering a goal or an assist in 2022. That’s not for the want of trying though.
As my colleague Nick Wright pointed out in his assessment of Odegaard’s man-of-the-match performance against Wolves, although he wasn’t directly involved in both of Arsenal’s goals they wouldn’t have occurred without his influence. With such confidence flowing through his veins playing just behind the lone Arsenal striker, Odegaard could be set to take centre stage on Super Sunday against a Watford side Arsenal should brush aside quite readily. I want to back him across a variety of markets.
Odegaard hasn’t scored since the win over Southampton but has been racking up the shots and expected goals data, especially in matches against relegation-threatened teams. In matches against Burnley, Brentford and Norwich, Odegaard registered nine shots and an expected goals total of 0.93 which showcases his actual goalscoring threat when Arsenal roam forward.
He is 3/1 with Sky Bet to find the net this weekend and 4/6 to have two or more shots at goal. Both prices I’m on board with.
But the real standout part of Odegaard’s game lies in his creative work. Since December 17, only Michael Olise and Trent Alexander-Arnold have created a higher expected assist return per 90 minutes than Odegaard in the Premier League. From which he has produced three actual assists. With Arsenal likely to dominate most areas of this match, I’m happy to throw in Odegaard to record another assist at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
For those that want to back the Odegaard masterclass, you can get 20/1 on him scoring, having two shots at goal and recording an assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Arsenal to win to nil (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Martin Odegaard to score, have two shots at goal and record an assist (20/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United will have some new ‘first-time’ fans this weekend. Here is that list:
One of my starting points for dissecting a match stems from running key performance data from the last six weeks. From runs of fixtures that have seen them play a similar level of opposition (average league position has been 12th), Manchester United are actually coming out on top in some important metrics over Manchester City, which did surprise me.
United are creating an average of 13 chances per 90 minutes, City are working at 11.5. But how does that metric align against the quality of chance being created? Well, United come out on top there too.
Ralf Rangnick’s side are posting an attacking non-penalty expected goals figure of 2.17 per 90 minutes. City’s is averaging out at 1.82 during the same period.
And even if you just run the basic results data in that period we have United coming out on top in the points per game battle with 2.15 per game to City’s 2.00.
Of course, City have shown exceptional metrics over a deep timeframe of sample size to make them the most likely winners of this encounter, especially against such a flaky and at times stodgy Manchester United side. But I’m here to try and assess probabilities and analyse where there might be an edge to be had in the market. In this case, Manchester City are simply too short at 4/11 which gives them a 73 per cent chance of winning this match.
United have only lost one of their last 20 games (not including penalty shootouts) in all competitions since sacking Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. I’m happy to back them at 2/1 with Sky Bet to avoid defeat here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Manchester United to win or draw vs Manchester City (2/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Tottenham vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Catching Tottenham right is proving one of life’s mysteries. I think I may have cracked it though.
Back them when they have six or more days to prepare for a game, oppose them when asked to play two games within a four-day period.
Since Antonio Conte took charge, Spurs have had six or more days to prepare for seven games under his watch and they have won six and drawn once. Compare that to their recent record of four days or fewer between games and you find six defeats from seven games in all competitions.
This game falls into the six days or more category so we should be confident of seeing the best side of Spurs against the Premier League’s worst travellers. Everton have the fewest away points in the Premier League this season (6).
Plus, they have a manager in Frank Lampard that doesn’t embrace keeping things tight on the road. Everton have shipped five in two away games since he took the job. As Chelsea boss, Lampard’s team conceded the second-most goals of any team in the Premier League away from his home during his tenure (50) at an average of 1.7 goals per 90 minutes.
When you add it all up, the glaringly obvious sticks out like a sore thumb. Just back Harry Kane to score.
Kane has scored 12 goals in 14 appearances against Everton, including 11 in his last nine since March 2017. On current form, there isn’t a hotter player in the Premier League and an odds-against price of Kane to score at 6/5 with Sky Bet looks more than fair enough. Kane to score twice at 11/2 and the hat-trick at 33/1 also should be given some consideration to any staking plan.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Harry Kane to score (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Jones Knows’ best bets….
- Current P+L for the season: +75.5
1pt on Antonio Rudiger to score a header (14/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
1pt on Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool all to win to nil (12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
1pt on Martin Odegaard to score, assist and have two shots at goal (20/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)